It would appear that artificial intelligence has advanced dramatically in recent years, with the introduction of softwares such as ChatGPT and GenAI. Among the sectors that have been affected (for better or worse), education remains a defining one thus far. The ethics surrounding its use in learning continues to encourage debate. All that can be safely argued is one thing: the technology isn’t going away. Drawing on research, along with both past and current discussions, this post seeks to uncover just how much further this technology could evolve by the time 2040 rolls around. The research will mainly concern past innovations and predictions, and will be supported and portrayed through use of AI generated imagery.

The structure will revolve around Wendell Bell’s framework of possible, probable and preferable futures. Bell was a futurist who approached it as “something to be shaped according to human values” rather than social trends (1, Teich). His framework functions not only as a platform to forecast both possible and probable futures, but also to decide what he sees as the ideal future (or preferable).

Possible Futures

This section will be based on the open end that, at the end of the day, the future truly is. It would seem that the most popular view is held by those who are already condemning the recent embrace of ChatGPT. In spite of the inspiration and assistance it’s known to provide, many fear that increased evolution will lead to a world in which young adults are unable to think for themselves – that they’ll be governed by information steeped in bias 

What has often been discussed on both sides is the possibility of teachers being replaced by artificial intelligence, or at least partially. This could also fall into students becoming self-taught in a way. Already, there exists a wide variety of prototypes that are slowly proving the effectiveness of AI assistance. Whether it be small tasks, such as management and grading, or even fulfilling the teaching role entirely, the blueprint is there. In this scenario, teachers may then be redefined as ‘facilitators’.

We could also see a shift towards educational environments that are inclusive and more willing to adapt. There’s an estimated possibility that, by 2040, 50% of all learning management systems will be enhanced by a certain degree of AI. The concept of AI tutors has already been realised through indirect ways (such as ChatGPT), thus leaving the door open for further expansion. This would allow a greater chance for each student’s needs to be met (e.g. preferred style and pace). It would also eradicate the distance barrier – an enhancement that has already begun with the introduction of the internet. Going as far back as the early stages of remote learning (2020), certain optimists made the suggestion that AI-driven platforms could assist in closing the global education gap in the near future.

As well as positive ideas, there is also a growing fear that AI’s reign will only increase the divide that the internet has maintained thus far. There’s still a possibility that only the wealthy will be experiencing the advantages of AI learning, while impoverished communities remain left behind. Countering this would require strict policy, but still remains a possible future.

Image 1: Possible future of education (crafted by ChatGPT)

Probable Futures

With possibility, there also lies probability – based mainly on current trajectory rather than hypotheticals.

As it stands, it would appear most likely that teachers and AI will be working hand-in-hand, with AI providing administrative assistance while teachers focus on one-on-one interactions. The shift toward more adaptive and data-informed teaching methods would appear to be imminent, with the above 50% prediction remaining both a possibility and a high likelihood.

What we’re already seeing now is a mix of hands-on and AI-based learning (with this Communications and Media degree being a prime example). With this in mind, we’re seeing a clear trend toward creating guidelines that ensure safe and ethical interactions with AI moving forward.

The image below is a demonstration of how a classroom may potentially look with all of these factors considered. Although it’s not entirely dissimilar from the possible future, a main distinction would be the emphasis on one-on-one teaching that has been trajected remain (alongside the technological innovations to come).

Image 2: Probable future of education (crafted by ChatGPT)

Preferable Futures

What comes last is what would be the best possible future. Not every possibility presented thus far has been deemed positive. What we’re mainly aiming for is a collection of bridges- each tailored to fill whatever gaps we’re still currently experiencing. The idea of AI-powered learning becoming, at the very least, universally accessible, would allow a preferable vision of 2040 to be possible. Each and every individual should be able to receive an equal amount of access to this technology… in a perfect world.

The same goes for access to the physical spaces. By having AI present to lighten the load, the focus will still remain on human interaction. That way, each student can remain grounded while still feeling comfortable enough to chase their own learning goals (as set by either the AI software or the people around them). Also, teachers are given more time to hone in on personal growth rather than grading and general maintenance.

                   

Image 3: Preferable future of education (crafted by ChatGPT)

Although there still remain potential downsides to the continued development of AI technology, they’re countered with opportunity. Experts continue to insist that “ignoring AI tools and their advances would not lead to a better understanding among students and would hinder improvements to higher education” (2, Neumann). With close monitoring and thoughtful policy-making, there’s potential brimming for the future of education. One aspect that tends to overlap across all three futures is the concept of outreach – something that began with the internet, and shall continue to be developed. Most signs seem to point to a future in which technology is used to enhance our understanding of the world, instead of making it smaller.

References

(1) Teich, A. (1997) Foundations of Future Studies: Human Science for a New Era by Wendell Bell, Isis, Vol. 8, No. 3, p.g. 520

(2) Neumann, M , Rauschenberger, M , Schön, E. (2023) “We Need To Talk About ChatGPT”: The Future of AI and Higher Education, IEEE

(all three images were created using ChatGPT image generator)